Who is going to win?
We start election day with no clear indication as to what the final result will be. As anybody who has being following the campaign season knows, the polls have been jumping all over the place and giving contradictory, odd and outright bizarre results. If you just follow the polls, then there's no way in which you can get an accurate prediction, so you need to include many more factors. Even doing that, it still doesn't give you a conclusive result.
But well, we need to have a prediction. Since last Friday I have been feeling a surge towards Kerry. I include here my prediction and try to give an explanation for them.
We basically enter election day with four states exactly tied on the polls: New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio and Florida, with 59 electoral votes among them. My prediction is that at the end of the election journey, Kerry is going to win New Mexico and Ohio and Bush will get Iowa and Florida. It well may be the other case around. I think that Kerry just slightly pulled away in Wisconsin, so I took that out of the final toss-up states.
I think there is a 70% chance of having a very very close election (less than 2% difference in the popular vote) and 30% chance of having a winner with a margin of 3-6%, which would give any of those a slightly more comfortable lead on the electoral college.
My prediction for the very close scenario is a Kerry victory of 277-261, and around 1.3% difference in the popular vote. If Kerry wins the popular vote with that 1.3% margin, then I think he will win Ohio and New Mexico (25 ev) and Bush will win Iowa and Florida (34 ev). If Kerry wins by 2-3.5% he will win all of those four states and their 59 ev, totaling 311 vs 227 for Bush. The same goes for Bush - if he can pull a victory in the popular vote between 1.5 and 2.5%, he will win those four states, giving him a total of 286 vs 252 for Kerry.
An extra point, that is, winning by 4.5%, would give Kerry a victory in Nevada and take him to 316ev - his total maximum. Two extra points to Bush (that means a victory of 4.5%) would give him the first 59 ev plus Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire - 45 extra votes to take him to a total of 331 vs 208 for Kerry.
Summarizing, my prediction is: Kerry 277 - Bush 261
With the following intervals:
2.5% victory for Kerry: 311-227
4.5% victory for Kerry: 316-222
2.5% victory for Bush: 252-286
4.5% victory for Bush: 208-331
You can check the maps here (above or below, don't know where are they going to appear) and the results of my model here: https://webspace.utexas.edu/cam949/www/Final%20Forecasts.pdf
I am also predicting the Senate and Governors results. I predict a pick up of one seat for the Republicans in the Senate.
Why I believe that Kerry has the advantage? Because of turnout. I think that we are going to see a considerable increase in turnout across the country. Another prediction: turnout will be at least 64% of the voting age population (against 54% in 2000). The range could be between 122 and 128 million voters (against 105 million four years ago).
I think pollsters have been having a lot of problems trying to measure all those first time voters, and what it has been widely talked about, those who only have cell phone lines instead of land lines, and who, by law, cannot be reached. Estimates range between 5 and 10% of the voters! Which is a a large enough interval to estimate anything with accuracy. A huge turnout will simply make the polls explode, and we could even get very surprising results. The most probable scenario is that both parties are energized enough and will get out to the polling booths in equal numbers.
If you analyze the market indicators, you can see a surge towards Kerry in the last 72 hours as well: http://tradesports.com
And finally, the Redskins lost their game against the Packers, and that signals a defeat for the incumbent party in the last 18 Presidential elections! - although, the Red Sox broke their curse this year as well.
This maps were created using the calculator tool at Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (http://www.uselectionatlas.org), one of the best election resources on the web!
But well, we need to have a prediction. Since last Friday I have been feeling a surge towards Kerry. I include here my prediction and try to give an explanation for them.
We basically enter election day with four states exactly tied on the polls: New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio and Florida, with 59 electoral votes among them. My prediction is that at the end of the election journey, Kerry is going to win New Mexico and Ohio and Bush will get Iowa and Florida. It well may be the other case around. I think that Kerry just slightly pulled away in Wisconsin, so I took that out of the final toss-up states.
I think there is a 70% chance of having a very very close election (less than 2% difference in the popular vote) and 30% chance of having a winner with a margin of 3-6%, which would give any of those a slightly more comfortable lead on the electoral college.
My prediction for the very close scenario is a Kerry victory of 277-261, and around 1.3% difference in the popular vote. If Kerry wins the popular vote with that 1.3% margin, then I think he will win Ohio and New Mexico (25 ev) and Bush will win Iowa and Florida (34 ev). If Kerry wins by 2-3.5% he will win all of those four states and their 59 ev, totaling 311 vs 227 for Bush. The same goes for Bush - if he can pull a victory in the popular vote between 1.5 and 2.5%, he will win those four states, giving him a total of 286 vs 252 for Kerry.
An extra point, that is, winning by 4.5%, would give Kerry a victory in Nevada and take him to 316ev - his total maximum. Two extra points to Bush (that means a victory of 4.5%) would give him the first 59 ev plus Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire - 45 extra votes to take him to a total of 331 vs 208 for Kerry.
Summarizing, my prediction is: Kerry 277 - Bush 261
With the following intervals:
2.5% victory for Kerry: 311-227
4.5% victory for Kerry: 316-222
2.5% victory for Bush: 252-286
4.5% victory for Bush: 208-331
You can check the maps here (above or below, don't know where are they going to appear) and the results of my model here: https://webspace.utexas.edu/cam949/www/Final%20Forecasts.pdf
I am also predicting the Senate and Governors results. I predict a pick up of one seat for the Republicans in the Senate.
Why I believe that Kerry has the advantage? Because of turnout. I think that we are going to see a considerable increase in turnout across the country. Another prediction: turnout will be at least 64% of the voting age population (against 54% in 2000). The range could be between 122 and 128 million voters (against 105 million four years ago).
I think pollsters have been having a lot of problems trying to measure all those first time voters, and what it has been widely talked about, those who only have cell phone lines instead of land lines, and who, by law, cannot be reached. Estimates range between 5 and 10% of the voters! Which is a a large enough interval to estimate anything with accuracy. A huge turnout will simply make the polls explode, and we could even get very surprising results. The most probable scenario is that both parties are energized enough and will get out to the polling booths in equal numbers.
If you analyze the market indicators, you can see a surge towards Kerry in the last 72 hours as well: http://tradesports.com
And finally, the Redskins lost their game against the Packers, and that signals a defeat for the incumbent party in the last 18 Presidential elections! - although, the Red Sox broke their curse this year as well.
This maps were created using the calculator tool at Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (http://www.uselectionatlas.org), one of the best election resources on the web!
posted by Cesar Martinez at 6:40 AM
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