Afternoon Update #2
Wow.. the future markets are going crazy! Kerry up 15 points in 2 hours now!
Exit polls are not trustworthy when an election is very close, so we need to use caution here. There are still some hours for people to go voting, and we don't know the composition of those late voters.
It could be that Kerry is indeed winning by a more comfortable margin - in the 2.5-3.5% - but it is not over. Very good early news could discourage Kerry voters to go out in the final hours.
Exit polls are not trustworthy when an election is very close, so we need to use caution here. There are still some hours for people to go voting, and we don't know the composition of those late voters.
It could be that Kerry is indeed winning by a more comfortable margin - in the 2.5-3.5% - but it is not over. Very good early news could discourage Kerry voters to go out in the final hours.
posted by Cesar Martinez at 3:35 PM
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