Conclave 2005: Who is going to be the new Pope?

Karol Jozef Wojtyla, Pope John Paul II, died on April 2nd 2005 after more than 26 years as head of the Catholic Church. The Cardinals that are eligible to vote are going to meet in a Conclave that starts on April 18th to elect the successor of John Paul II. However, the succession process really started several years ago, when the Pope started to show signs of increased frailty.

The Papal succession process is of obvious importance given its implications: to the Catholic Church in particular and to the rest of the world in general. But this process generates the interest not only of historians, members of the clergy and those that will try to study the consequences of certain choice, but of political junkies as well. The particular characteristics of the process to elect a new Pope are worth studying, and constitute a fascinating exercise of political ability and positioning.

Because of its secrecy and arcane procedures and rules, the Papal election is hard to predict. The lack of documentation of previous Conclaves makes this a more difficult task. It is forbidden, under penalty of ex-communication, for the Cardinals to reveal any information about the votes and alliances. The only way that the names of the competing Cardinals and the results of the ballots could be known is if the elected Pope decides to authorize the release of them. Of course, there have always been filtrations and testimonies on the background. At the moment of the death of John Paul II, 117 Cardinals were eligible to participate in the conclave, the largest number ever; since then, two Cardinals, one from Mexico and another from Philippines have excused themselves due to health reasons. Although only those Cardinals aged under 80 can vote, there’s no age requirement to elect the Pope. Of those Cardinals over 80 only four could have a slim chance of being considered, and are those that were considered among the contenders once, but that were practically eliminated by the long papacy of John Paul II.

As in every election, this one is an election about issues, personalities and power turfs. The issues that the Cardinals are going to consider are relatively clear, since they have been discussing them for several years now. What it was not very clear during the first days after the death of the Pope was the weight that the Cardinals were going to give to each one. Along the past ten days, there has been relatively more clarity about which ones could be more important. They have been discussing them during the several meetings they have had in the past two weeks.

Once the issues are defined, the electors will try to seek those candidates who could handle those best, or the ones who they perceive could be better fit to lead the Church. One word is constantly repeated about the personal characteristics: respect; the elected one needs to command the respect of his fellow Cardinals. It can be then inferred that those who are extremely controversial won’t have a chance; the same can be said of those who have made unequivocal commitments or have tried to veto or promote someone else openly. This doesn’t mean that they are looking for a gray figure, but someone that has had the ability to express his vision without alienating an important number of colleagues. There is something else that the next Pope needs to have: at least a handling and understanding of the media and globalization as good as the one that John Paul II had. The late Pope changed the image of a secluded pontiff, not in touch with the rest of the world, unreachable. The Catholic Church cannot risk electing someone that does not understand the power of the modern media and is not at tune and comfortable with a more connected world.

The third factor into consideration is the power struggles between different groups. These groups are partially defined by the issues, but not limited to them. There are geographic differences; struggles between those who are Vatican insiders and the ones that represent the different dioceses; conflict between the strict traditionalists and those that seek to open at least a limited debate about some doctrinal issues (it is hard to talk about any real liberals; those who are viewed like that are liberals just in relation to the rest of the Cardinal body); and of course, there are always personal vendettas. Health issues are another factor; given the median age of the cardinals (more than 70), there is a high probability that many of them are victims of different ailments. It is expected that they would not choose as Pope someone that has any serious condition – but that is information not necessarily accessible to the rest of the world.

Which are the issues that they have discussed and are going to be relevant to the election of the new Pope? There are two sets of them: internal and external ones. The internal ones are related to the way the Church organizes itself and takes decisions; they also touch aspects of doctrinal definitions. The first ones have been increasingly present in the discussions before the conclave: should the Church become a more ‘collegiate’ body and shift more responsibility and decision-making towards the dioceses and away from the Vatican. There is a growing conflict between those who want to ‘devolve’ more power to the dioceses, view that is represented mainly by the cardinals from central and northern Europe, and those who want to maintain the power within the Vatican walls. Under John Paul II’s papacy, the Church vastly increased its presence around the world but, at the same time, the decision-making process was concentrated more in the Vatican. Many have resented this. Cardinals Walter Kasper and Karl Lehman from Germany and the Belgian Godfried Daanels are staunch advocates of the first vision. The powerful cardinals Joseph Ratzinger and Angelo Sodano represent the later one. While this has been a perennial issue, the supporters of a more ‘collegiate’ vision have been particularly vocal the past couple of weeks.

The other important internal issue is related to doctrinal issues: celibacy, role of women inside the Church, use of preservatives, gay rights, abortion. While a great majority of the Cardinals are considerably conservative and on the same page about the final answers to these questions, there is also an important faction that believes the time has arrived for, at least, start a serious debate about them. On these issues, the two main factions seem to follow a distribution somewhat similar to that of the centralization/de-centralization. A majority of the European cardinals following a more moderate line, while the Latin American representatives and the Vatican Curia have a more conservative tone. Cardinal Ratzinger is again the leader of the most conservative faction of the Church, having worked as the head of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, successor of the Holy Inquisition. During the Mass celebrated just before the opening of the Conclave, Cardinal Ratzinger ratified his view that the Church should remain away of what he called the ‘moral relativism’ of the modern world. Sensing that the majority of the College of Cardinals is not going to be very receptive towards more liberal stances, at least as long as people like Ratzinger remain in top leadership positions, the ‘liberal’ faction has been playing the ‘collegiality’ card instead.

The external factors are related to the following issues: the relationship of the Catholic Church with other Christian Churches; relationship with other faiths; expansion strategy; and finding a main theme. One of the pending issues that John Paul II tried to address was the relationship between the Catholic Church and the Russian Orthodox one. The relationship has not been easy and the lack of understanding evidenced by the fact that Russia was one of the very few nations that Wojtyla did not visit. He gave a lot of importance to this issue, we don’t know how high on their priority list the cardinals are going to place it; in any case, it is something in which the new Pope will need to work. Those who think this is a very important issue, point out to Cardinal Husar from Ukraine and Cardinal Vlk from the Czech Republid. It is unlikely that the electors are going to give that much importance to this issue as to elect a second straight Pope from Eastern Europe.

John Paul II made a great effort to bridge the gap between the Catholic Church and other faiths, especially the Jewish one. The Catholic Church and the Jewish faith have enjoyed their best relationship in centuries. It is highly desirable that the next Pope will continue this effort, although unfortunately that is not a guaranteed result. The document Dominus Iesus produced in 2000 by Cardinal Ratzinger created unnecessary tension with other denominations. The main challenge for the Catholic Church is how to deal with Islam. Are the cardinals going to perceive it as a threat to the Church? Or as a religion with which cooperation can be attained? The expansion of Islam, the still weak presence of the Catholic Church in Asia and the current international situation are certainly factors that the electors need to take into consideration. Cardinals that have had experience in dialoguing with Islamic counterparts may have a good advantage here. Cardinal Arinze from Nigeria comes from a heavily Islamic nation and may represent a good option. The best profile was the one of Cardinal Sin of the Phillipines; however, he decided not to participate in the Conclave due to illness.

Another challenge for the Church is its lack of growth in Europe, the expansion of evangelical denominations in Latin America (which is the main reservoir of people for the Catholic Church) and its still limited presence in Africa and Asia. What is the expansion strategy that they are going to signal? If they want to cement its presence in Latin America then the election of a Pope from the region will certainly help. Or are they going to consider more important to consolidate the growth of the Church in Africa and Asia? Choosing a Pope from Latin America may signal a ‘containment’ strategy while the election of a representative from Africa or Asia could signify a decision to promote aggressively the presence of the Catholic Church in those places in which it is still weak. In the first case, the main candidates are: Cardinal Hummes from Brazil, Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga from Honduras, Cardinal Bergoglio from Argentina and Cardinal Castrillon Hoyos from Colombia; there are at least four other possible candidates from the region. Cardinal Arinze comes to mind again if the decision is the second one, as well as Cardinals Dias and Toppo from India and the Syrian Cardinal Daoud.

When John Paul II was elected, the cardinals decided that the main theme for the Church was the fight against Communism, which had been a constant rival of the Vatican. Which should be the main theme for the Church in the wake of the 21st Century? Many have mentioned that the main challenge ahead is the fight against global poverty. John Paul II had an special interest in moving the Church towards being an effective institution to help to improve the living conditions of the poor. But given that, historically, the fight against poverty has been associated with internal leftist movements like the Liberation Theology, several cardinals are wary of defining this as the main theme. Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga has been the most active member on this issue; others have been active as Cardinal Tettamanzi from Milan and Cardinal Hummes. Are they going to choose the global fight against poverty as the main theme? If not, which? Other relevant topics could be to increase the presence of the Church in Asia; to deal, in any way, with Islam or, more likely, to start the internal reform of the Church. If there’s a decision to start the internal reform, then someone like Cardinal Daanels will be one of the front runners. There is, however, an increasing possibility that the cardinals are not going to come to a consensus about the next big theme for the Church. If this happens, then the chances of choosing a ‘transitional’ Pope increases. A ‘transitional’ Pope would likely be someone older, with the expectancy of conducting the Vatican with stability and for a relatively short period, until a consensus is reached. People like Cardinals Ratzinger and Sodano (the Secretary of State under John Paul II) would be the leading candidates under this scenario. Other candidates that can serve the purpose of ‘transitional’ Popes include: Cardinals Ruini and Martini from Italy, Castrillon Hoyos from Colombia and Lustiger from France.

Those are the main issues being discussed. Other considerations play a factor as well, like geography and personal characteristics. Given that Italy is still the country with the largest contingent of cardinals, the probability of having again an Italian Pope is not negligible; there are at least 12 Italian cardinals with some chance of being elected. There has been an increasing insistence by many that the next Pope should come from a developing country, specifically from Latin America. The Central and Northern Europeans, sensing that their chances may not be that good, have apparently aligned themselves under one candidate: Cardinal Daanels from Belgium; he had even the ‘chutzpah’ of declaring himself a candidate, before Cardinal Ratzinger convinced the College of Cardinals of establishing a media black out. Some of the names being discussed have been under the public eye for a long time now, since this process really started when the health of John Paul II started to deteriorate. Some others have just surged in the past three weeks such as Cardinal Bergoglio from Argentina, Cardinals Dias and Toppo from India and Cardinal da Cruz Policarpo from Portugal. Some other have surprisingly faded like the powerful Cardinal Sodano; but that may be a diversion.

An interesting question is if the breaking of the voting bloc represented by the American cardinals has benefited any other particular group. The United States is the country with the largest number of cardinals after Italy, but after the sexual misconduct scandals of the past two years, they grew divided. The Italian cardinals are not necessarily united and it appears to exist an interesting duel between Cardinal Tettamanzi and Cardinal Scola from Venice. Cardinals Ruini and Battista Re could be compromise candidates if the two Italian front runners are eliminated.

In any case, we have an apparent winner, even if he is not elected Pope. Cardinal Ratzinger has taken advantage of his position as the most senior cardinal to try to set the agenda. He has skillfully used the pulpit to establish his unambiguous position in favor of tradition and has forced other cardinals to react. He has gone on the offensive and will play an important role as king maker in the case he himself is not the elected one. Predicting who is going to be the new Pope is always a dangerous business, given the lack of complete information. However, the issues discussed here are real and are the ones that the cardinals are going to take into consideration. Some analysts say that after a long papacy, it follows a short one, thus favoring an older Pope. Another usual saying is that ‘he who enters Papa, exits Cardinal’ when referring to the Conclave. But that has not always been true: Pius XII and Paul VI entered the Conclave as favorites and were elected Pope. Maybe the best way to predict the result is by taking a look at the bookies (www.paddypower.com); perhaps even some astute cardinals may be placing their bets.

Follows a list of the main contenders, ordered by possibility in groups:

Age Name Country
62 Oscar Andrés Cardinal Rodríguez Maradiaga Honduras
71 Dionigi Cardinal Tettamanzi Italy
71 Giovanni Battista Cardinal Re Italy
74 Camillo Cardinal Ruini Italy
77 Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger Germany
70 Cláudio Cardinal Hummes, O.F.M. Brazil
61 Crescenzio Cardinal Sepe Italy
72 Francis Cardinal Arinze Nigeria
75 Darío Cardinal Castrillón Hoyos Colombia
78 Carlo Maria Cardinal Martini, S.J. Italy

71 Godfried Cardinal Danneels Belgium
69 Alfonso Cardinal López Trujillo Colombia
63 Angelo Cardinal Scola Italy
78 Jean-Marie Cardinal Lustiger France
60 Christoph Cardinal Schönborn, O.P. Austria
72 Javier Cardinal Lozano Barragán Mexico
72 Renato Raffaele Cardinal Martino Italy
68 Jorge Mario Cardinal Bergoglio, S.J. Argentina
68 Ennio Cardinal Antonelli Italy
69 José Cardinal da Cruz Policarpo Portugal
68 Ivan Cardinal Dias India
77 Angelo Cardinal Sodano Italy
76 Giacomo Cardinal Biffi Italy

70 Tarcisio Cardinal Bertone, S.D.B. Italy
74 Michele Cardinal Giordano Italy
72 Eusébio Oscar Cardinal Scheid, S.C.I. Brazil
75 Julián Cardinal Herranz Casado Spain
65 Telesphore Placidus Cardinal Toppo India
71 Joachim Cardinal Meisner Germany
71 Geraldo Majella Cardinal Agnelo Brazil
72 Lubomyr Cardinal Husar Ukraine
72 Pedro Cardinal Rubiano Sàenz Colombia
68 Nicolás de Jesús Cardinal López Rodríguez Dominican Rep
72 Walter Cardinal Kasper Germany
68 Karl Cardinal Lehmann Germany
62 Norberto Cardinal Rivera Carrera Mexico
68 Antonio María Cardinal Rouco Varela Spain
68 Jaime Lucas Cardinal Ortega y Alamino Cuba
74 Ignace Moussa I (Basile) Cardinal Daoud Syria